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One in two Australian house and unit markets declined in value last year

Posted by societyrealestate on 23/01/2023

More than half of the country’s house and unit suburb markets saw a fall in value in 2022, as the national property downturn became more widespread due to consecutive rate hikes, high inflation and weak consumer sentiment.

CoreLogic’s interactive Mapping the Market Report has found the proportion of national house and unit markets recording a quarterly decline in values increased from 76.9% in September to 80.7% in December.

CoreLogic Economist Kaytlin Ezzy said mapping the suburb level data confirmed the extent of the housing market downswing and demonstrated the diversity between capital cities, and houses and units.

She said fewer than 10% of house and unit markets recorded a decline in value in the December quarter 2021, serving as a stark reminder of how dramatically Australia’s housing market has moved from boom to bust.

“The market downswing doesn’t discriminate, with only a small proportion of suburban areas riding a wave of positive growth among the sea of declining values,” she said.

“This has resulted in a reduction in the number of million-dollar suburbs, particularly in our most expensive housing market, Sydney, with the most resilient suburbs found in more affordable areas and within the unit sector.

“The downswing has meant buyers who were previously priced out of some markets might start to see opportunities appearing, particularly in cities where larger downturns have been recorded such as Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Hobart and Canberra. However, it’s likely much of the benefits of falling values have been offset, with rising interest rates pushing serviceability buffers and mortgage repayments higher.”

In Sydney, seven (1.3%) of the 547 house suburbs analysed recorded an increase in values in 2022, with the majority concentrated in the city’s south east. The broad-based and sustained downswing has seen the number of million-dollar house suburbs decline from 439 in March to 345 in December.

Annually, Sydney unit values fell -9.2% taking the city’s median unit value to $772,807. Of the 292 suburbs analysed, 93.2% (272) saw values fall over the quarter, while 95.2% (278) recorded an annual fall in value. Annual falls range from -0.1% in Mortlake to -23.8% in Centennial Park in Sydney’s Eastern Suburbs.

Melbourne had six (1.6%) of its 371 house suburbs record a rise in values in the December quarter and all but eight (2.2%) suburbs record a fall in their annual house value. Annual value changes ranged from a 1.6% rise in the western suburb of Darley to a -18.0% drop in Highett in the city’s Inner South region.

Melbourne unit values are down -5.0% since a peak in April. Markets in the Inner city region are among the most resilient to declining values, with East and West Melbourne, Southbank and Docklands recording annual increases of 12.9%, 9.5%, 9.2% and 8.9%, respectively.

In Brisbane, the portion of suburbs recording a quarterly decline in house values remained fairly steady, with 94.4% (302) of the 320 suburbs analysed falling in value, while the number of suburbs recording an annual decline increased from two in September to 160 (50%) in December.

Selling conditions for Brisbane’s unit market continued to weaken through the December quarter with values falling -1.8%. Despite the significant growth seen over the past two years, 97.7% of Brisbane’s unit suburbs have a current median value below $750,000.

Quarterly value falls across Adelaide’s house market accelerated over the quarter, from -0.3% in September to -1.4% in December, with premium suburbs across Adelaide’s Central and Hills regions making up 11 of the 12 suburbs that saw values fall over the calendar year.

Adelaide’s unit market remains more resilient to declining values than house markets, with just one quarter (21) of the 85 unit markets analysed recording a decline in values.

Bucking the trend seen across the other capitals, house values across Perth rose 0.1% over the December quarter, taking values 3.9% higher over the year. Perth remains the most affordable capital city for detached homes, with a median house value of $586,721.

Perth’s unit values have decreased by -1.2% over the three months to December, taking its median value to $406,621.

Over the three months to December, Hobart’s quarterly change in house values saw a steeper rate of decline, falling -5.0%, taking Hobart’s median house value to $725,736.

Hobart unit values fell -4.4% over the December quarter and -7.9% over the year, with all 10 markets analysed recording a quarterly drop in value.

House value falls became more geographically broad-based across Darwin over the past quarter, with the portion of suburbs recording a decline in house values increasing from 35.1% in September to 84.2% (32) in December.

With a median value of $382,695, Darwin’s unit market is the most affordable across the capitals, despite recording a mild 0.2% rise in values over the three months to December.

In Canberra 100% of the 83 suburbs analysed recorded a decline in house values over the December quarter. The sustained downswing has seen the portion of house markets recording an annual decline grow from 27.1% in September to 86.7% in December.

The -2.0% drop recorded over the December quarter saw Canberra’s unit values fall below $600,000 to $599,937.

Source Corelogic

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